II. Armed conflict in Ukraine and the risk of spillover to a major interstate war

Chapter:

5. Armed conflict and peace processes in Europe

Source:

SIPRI Yearbook 2022

Author(s):

Ian Davis

Ukraine has been the focus of Europe’s main territorial conflict since the annexation of Crimea by Russia in March 2014 and the outbreak of armed conflict in eastern Ukraine shortly thereafter. The initial causes of this conflict and the extent to which it represents a non-International armed conflict with primarily domestic origins or a foreign intervention by Russia remain intensely contested.¹ The conflict centres on clashes between Russian-backed non-state armed groups and the Ukrainian government in two regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, which are part of an area known as Donbas. While Russia has consistently denied the presence of its military forces in Donbas, Western and Ukrainian officials assert that Russia supports the separatists with military forces, equipment and funding. In May 2021 Ukraine estimated that almost 3000 Russian military personnel, mostly in command and control positions, were present in eastern Ukraine, with the total number of Russia-led fighters estimated at more than 35 000.²