III. Dynamics of peace and conflict

Chapter:

1. Introduction: international security, armaments and disarmament

Source:

SIPRI Yearbook 2015

Author(s):

Ian Anthony

Although it is still too soon to be certain, the data presented in this Yearbook tends to reinforce the tentative conclusion presented in the introduction to the 2014 volume—that the positive trend towards less violence and more effective conflict management witnessed over the past decade has ended. In 2014 the priority has been containing, rather than resolving, conflicts in different parts of the world. Containment has a geographical dimension—to prevent the spread of fighting to new locations and mitigate the spillover effects, including the displacement of people, and the breakdown of health systems and other necessary services—and is also a basis for reducing the levels of violence, most often through ceasefire arrangements. In recent years conflicts have been resolved (to a greater or lesser extent) as a result of outcomes on the battlefield rather than using tools of mediation, and no conflict has ended by way of a peace settlement since 2009 (see chapter 4).