III. Patterns of organized violence, 2004–13

Chapter:

4. Armed conflict

Source:

SIPRI Yearbook 2015

Author(s):

Peter Wallensteen

This section provides a 10-year overview of three categories of organized violence used by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP): state-based conflict, non-state conflict and one-sided violence. The number of incidents of violent action that resulted in the deaths of at least 25 people in a particular year (the threshold for inclusion in the UCDP) was exactly the same in 2013 as in 2004, at 106. The number of state-based conflicts in 2013 was also the same as in 2004. Over the decade, however, the emphasis has shifted from one-sided violence, which was the largest category in 2004, to non-state conflict, which was the largest category in 2013. The number of campaigns of one-sided violence has declined steadily over the decade to almost half the number recorded in 2004, whereas the number of non-state conflicts increased dramatically. The number of state-based conflicts shows less of a clear trend, fluctuating between 31 and 37 over the period (see figure 4.4). Looking at the overall trend in the number of fatalities from organized violence, a more distinct—and troubling—trend emerges. Largely due to developments in state-based conflict, and particularly due to the Syrian conflict,¹ the number of deaths from organized violence increased from about 30 000 in 2004 to nearly 56 000 in 2013 (see figure 4.5).²