III. How are refugee flows changing the Middle East?

Chapter:

2. Armed conflict in the Middle East

Source:

SIPRI Yearbook 2016

Author(s):

Ian Davis

The wars in Iraq and Syria had displaced around 4 million Iraqis and 12 million Syrians as of June 2015, marking a historic turning point for the region.¹ The increasingly sectarian nature of these conflicts in both countries is undermining the principle of a nation state built on societal diversity. Both government forces and non-state actors are targeting individuals and communities on the basis of ethnic or religious identity. Meanwhile, concern over different aspects of identity is affecting the refugee policies of Lebanon and Jordan, two countries that, with Turkey, currently host the majority of Iraqi and Syrian refugees (see figure 2.4). Lebanese politicians are concerned that the influx of large numbers of refugees might derail the delicate sectarian balance in the country and undermine its current governance structure. In Jordan, concerns about identity focus on questions of national origin, and that East Jordanians are becoming a minority in their own country.² In four Arab countries, two of which are haemorrhaging citizens and two receiving incoming populations, a substantive new underclass of citizens has emerged. In Syria and Iraq, millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs) are living in precarious conditions, on the run in their own land. In Lebanon and Jordan, refugees have settled in the poorest regions of both countries, triggering a growth in the size of vulnerable populations.³ If left unaddressed, the fallout of identity-based polarization and the expansion in vulnerable populations will have profound repercussions for regional and international stability.⁴