I. Achieving clarity on Syrian chemical weapon declarations to the OPCW and continued chemical weapon use allegations

Chapter:

13. Chemical and biological security threats

Source:

SIPRI Yearbook 2017

Author(s):

John Hart

Governments, researchers, the media and others (including social media platforms) have compiled large amounts of data on allegations of chemical weapon use in Syria. Most of this data is impossible to validate with certainty (e.g. due to the passage of time and lack of on-site access by qualified experts, as well as the possibility of deliberate disinformation). Institutional mandates, staffing and information bases also differ according to the body performing the data collection and analysis. For such reasons, the baseline data may serve to support politically preferred interpretations of the nature of the Syrian armed conflict. Nevertheless, instances of confirmed chemical weapon use in Syria exist that meet internationally accepted legal and technical standards of proof. The fundamental difficulty is not proving chemical weapon use as such; rather, it is a question of how cases that attribute responsibility can be structured so as to preclude open-ended consultations among governments on the ‘reasonableness’ and sufficiency of the multilaterally drafted text of the overarching conclusions.