Contents

SIPRI Yearbook 2017

Contents
Preface
Abbreviations and conventions
- Conventions
- Geographical regions and subregions
SIPRI Yearbook online
Introduction
1. Introduction: international security, armaments and disarmament
- I. The year 2016 in review
- II. Trends in armaments and disarmament
- III. International politics and global security
- IV. Conclusions
Part I. Armed conflicts and conflict management, 2016
2. Armed conflict and peace processes
- Overview
- I. Patterns of organized violence, 2007–16
- II. Out of the darkness? The hope for peace in Colombia
- III. Mapping armed conflicts over Islamist claims: exploring regional variations
- IV. The Global Peace Index 2017
3. Armed conflict and instability in the Middle East and North Africa
- Overview
- I. The Middle East and North Africa: 2016 in perspective
- II. The Islamic State in 2016: a failing ‘caliphate’ but a growing transnational threat?
- III. Military spending and arms transfers to the Middle East and North Africa
4. European security
- Overview
- I. Conflict or peace in Europe? Increasing uncertainties, rising insecurities
- II. Conflicts in the post-Soviet space: recent developments
- III. Turkey’s search for stability and legitimacy in 2016
5. Peace operations and conflict management
- Overview
- I. Global trends in peace operations
- II. Regional trends and developments
- III. Protection of civilians: the case of South Sudan
- IV. Table of multilateral peace operations, 2016
Part II. Security and development, 2016
6. Sustaining peace and sustainable development in dangerous places
- Overview
- I. Peace and development
- II. Sustaining peace: the new overarching United Nations framework
- III. Delivering as one: other multilateral mechanisms for sustaining peace
- IV. The peace being sustained: operationalizing prevention
7. Coping with crises: forced displacement in fragile contexts
- Overview
- I. Introduction
- II. Displacement dangers
- III. Crises of forced displacement in fragile contexts: key developments in 2016
- IV. United Nations and regional responses to displacement crises
- V. Conclusions
8. Exploring the links between climate change and violent conflict
- Overview
- I. Exploring the climate–conflict link: the case of East Africa
- II. Weather-related disasters and violent conflict
Part III. Military spending and armaments, 2016
9. Military expenditure
- Overview
- I. Global developments in military expenditure
- II. US military expenditure
- III. Oil price shocks and military expenditure
- IV. The backdating of SIPRI military expenditure data
- V. Transparency in military expenditure data
10. International arms transfers and developments in arms production
- Overview
- I. Developments in arms transfers, 2016
- II. Arms transfers as military aid
- III. Transparency in arms transfers
- IV. The financial value of states’ arms exports
- V. Arms production and military services
11. World nuclear forces
- Overview
- I. US nuclear forces
- II. Russian nuclear forces
- III. British nuclear forces
- IV. French nuclear forces
- V. Chinese nuclear forces
- VI. Indian nuclear forces
- VII. Pakistani nuclear forces
- VIII. Israeli nuclear forces
- IX. North Korea’s military nuclear capabilities
- X. Global stocks and production of fissile materials, 2016
- XI. Nuclear explosions, 1945–2016
Part IV. Non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament, 2016
12. Nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and arms control
- Overview
- I. Russian–US nuclear arms control and disarmament
- II. International cooperation to enhance nuclear security
- III. Initiatives and multilateral treaties on nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and arms control
- IV. Implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in Iran
13. Chemical and biological security threats
- Overview
- I. Achieving clarity on Syrian chemical weapon declarations to the OPCW and continued chemical weapon use allegations
- II. Allegations of use of chemical weapons in Iraq
- III. Chemical arms control and disarmament
- IV. Biological arms control
14. Conventional arms control
- Overview
- I. International humanitarian law: ICRC guidance and its application in urban warfare
- II. Humanitarian arms control regimes: key developments in 2016
- III. A relaunch of conventional arms control in Europe?
15. Dual-use and arms trade controls
- Overview
- I. The Arms Trade Treaty
- II. Multilateral embargoes on arms and dual-use items
- III. The export control regimes
- IV. Developments in EU dual-use and arms trade controls
- V. Human rights, the European Union and dual-use export controls
Annexes
Annex A. Arms control and disarmament agreements
- I. Universal treaties
- II. Regional treaties
- III. Bilateral treaties
Annex B. International security cooperation bodies
- I. Bodies with a global focus or membership
- II. Bodies with a regional focus or membership
- III. Strategic trade control regimes
Annex C. Chronology 2016
About the authors

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SIPRI Yearbook 2017

I. Exploring the climate–conflict link: the case of East Africa

Chapter:: 8. Exploring the links between climate change and violent conflict
Source:: SIPRI Yearbook 2017
Author(s):: Malin Mobjörk

The year 2016 was the warmest on record, with an average surface temperature about 1.1°C above the level in the late 19th century. Most of this warming has occurred in the past 35 years and 16 of the 17 warmest years have occurred since 2001.¹ The rising temperatures have been particularly noticeable in the Arctic. Arctic temperatures in the winter of 2016–17 were up to 25°C above normal winter temperatures.² The extent of the polar Arctic ice cap also reached a new record low in the winter of 2016–17.³

Citation (MLA):: Mobjörk, Malin. "8. Exploring the links between climate change and violent conflict." SIPRI Yearbook. SIPRI. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2016. Web. 5 Dec. 2024. <https://www.sipriyearbook.org/view/9780198811800/sipri-9780198811800-chapter-8-div1-41.xml>.
Citation (APA):: Mobjörk, M. (2016). 8. Exploring the links between climate change and violent conflict. In SIPRI, SIPRI Yearbook 2017: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Retrieved 5 Dec. 2024, from https://www.sipriyearbook.org/view/9780198811800/sipri-9780198811800-chapter-8-div1-41.xml
Citation (Chicago):: Mobjörk, Malin. "8. Exploring the links between climate change and violent conflict." In SIPRI Yearbook 2017: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, SIPRI. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016). Retrieved 5 Dec. 2024, from https://www.sipriyearbook.org/view/9780198811800/sipri-9780198811800-chapter-8-div1-41.xml

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