I. Flashpoints

Chapter:

1. Introduction: International stability and human security in 2019

Source:

SIPRI Yearbook 2020

Author(s):

Dan Smith

More than in recent years, events in 2019 raised the prospect of war between major powers in the Middle East and in South Asia. Such a war did not occur and was at no time the probable outcome in either setting. Yet, as missile strikes, proxy attacks and challenges to freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf unfolded in mid-2019, it was not unreasonable to contemplate the possibility that Iran might be at war with Saudi Arabia and other regional powers, and potentially with the USA. Armed clashes also increased between two nuclear-armed states, India and Pakistan, over Kashmir. Again, escalation did not appear completely out of the question. Although in both cases the crisis calmed, the kind of crisis management that has in the past been achieved through high-level diplomacy conducted by the UN or an uninvolved major power was not visible. In the case of events in the Gulf region, this may be largely traceable to Russia and the USA positioning themselves to back opposing sides in regional politics; in the case of Kashmir, it might rather be understood as a case of the global powers being unwilling to attempt to impose a compromise on two major regional powers. It is perhaps too soon to conclude that this indicates an international systemic deficiency of worrying proportions. Nonetheless, the world seemed to get too close for comfort to a situation of considerable danger more than once in 2019.