II. Armed conflict and peace processes in Iraq, Syria and Turkey

Chapter:

6. Armed conflict and peace processes in the Middle East and North Africa

Source:

SIPRI Yearbook 2020

Author(s):

Ian Davis

This section reviews the complex and interlinked armed conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Turkey. During 2019 the Assad government consolidated its hold in Syria and achieved further strategic gains, while Iraq remained a fragile, largely post-conflict state with weak institutions and growing protests. In a sign of the growing normalization between the two countries, a border crossing that had been closed since 2012 was reopened in September 2019.¹ Iran remained an influential presence in both countries. In 2019 Turkey continued its military operations in northern Iraq and carried out a new incursion of northern Syria, after United States President Donald J. Trump announced a US withdrawal. An agreement by Russia and Turkey to create a ‘safe zone’ in north-eastern Syria in October 2019 cemented Russia’s role as a key power broker in Syria, moved Turkey further away from its Western orbit and signified a diminished US influence in the region. Overall, the Kurds—an ethnic group of about 30 million people with populations living in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey—were the main losers in a reordering of the regional balance of power during the year (despite some political gains in Iraq).²