IV. Armed conflict and peace processes in North Africa

Chapter:

6. Armed conflict and peace processes in the Middle East and North Africa

Source:

SIPRI Yearbook 2020

Author(s):

Ian Davis

Less than a decade after the Arab Spring, North Africa—here comprising Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia—is undergoing a convergence of crises, which also puts the stability of neighbouring states in sub-Saharan Africa at risk (see chapter 7).¹ The lone Arab Spring democracy in Tunisia is also at risk, sandwiched between Libya’s civil war and an Algeria in transition. The protracted security breakdown in Libya has also spilled over into western Egypt, with cross-border weapons smuggling and infiltration from non-state armed groups exacerbating a complex interplay of human and internal security challenges in that country.² Returning ‘foreign fighters’ (individuals that have joined an armed conflict abroad) from the conflicts in Iraq, Libya and Syria, climate change and increasing water stress exacerbate underlying conflict dynamics.³ Disputes over the Nile’s waters, for example, have created long-term tensions among Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.⁴ More than 7000 foreign fighters came from North Africa, and several states, particularly Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, now face challenges of how to deal with returning jihadists and their families.⁵