IV. Armed conflict and peace processes in the Horn of Africa

Chapter:

7. Armed conflict and peace processes in sub-Saharan Africa

Source:

SIPRI Yearbook 2020

Author(s):

Ian Davis

In this section the Horn of Africa is defined as the eight member states of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)—Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda. These states are ‘listed among the thirty-five most fragile countries in the World’.¹ The state fragility is derived from a complex mix of limited or uneven access to natural resources, intergroup tensions (on regional, religious and ethnic lines), poverty and economic inequalities, and weak state institutions.² This ‘state fragility–conflict dynamic nexus’ shapes the security environment of all countries in the region.³ In 2019 only three of those states—Djibouti, Eritrea and Uganda—were free from armed conflicts. The armed conflicts in the other five states are discussed below. Relatively peaceful transitions of power in Ethiopia (in 2018) and Sudan (in 2019) and the implementation of a 2018 peace agreement in South Sudan led to significant decreases in armed violence in those three states. The armed conflict in Somalia remained one of the worst in the world.