V. Conclusions

Chapter:

2. Armed conflict, crime and criminal violence

Source:

SIPRI Yearbook 2010

Author(s):

Ekaterina Stepanova

The main global trends in armed conflict and other forms of organized political violence display different dynamics to those shown by global trends in criminal violence. Criminal violence is incomparably more frequent and far more widespread than armed conflict or one-sided violence against civilians. The decline and stabilization in the overall number of armed conflicts contrasts with a slow but steady increase in overall global crime levels in recent years, as well as a lack of any discernible decline in global, regional and subregional levels of criminal violence. The distribution of criminal violence around the world also shows that the countries and regions that display the highest rates of criminal violence are not necessarily those most heavily affected by major armed conflicts, even though the intensity and modes of armed violence in these areas approximate those typical of classic armed conflict. Protracted and intense armed confrontation involving purely criminal organizations—whether the violence is aimed at the state, other non-state groups or civilians—and states requires further empirical and theoretical research and deserves a category of its own in crime and conflict analysis. Campaigns of criminal violence are often matched—or even escalated—by high-intensity anti-criminal violence by police and other state security forces. Even in the most violence-prone regions, crime levels appear to be lower where the response goes beyond containment or harsh enforcement. This brings into question the attempts to apply military means to counter this type of armed violence.