III. Looking ahead

Chapter:

Introduction. International security, armaments and disarmament

Source:

SIPRI Yearbook 2012

Author(s):

Bates Gill

The convergence of increased constraints on established powers, the emergence of influential states and non-states with diffuse objectives and capabilities, and the continuing struggle to stabilize norms and institutions leaves the world in a more precarious position in the short-to-medium term. The old constellation of power balances and institutional capacities, rooted in the second half of the 20th century, looks increasingly incapable of effective policy and action to address and manage the challenges of the current era. Major global or regional interstate wars appear unlikely in the near term, but the international system is nevertheless vulnerable to disruptive shocks arising from localized and intensive warfare and interruptions to the flows of people, capital, commodities, technologies and information that help sustain modernizing and stable societies. Many of these disruptions—such as cyberattacks and cybercrime, well-organized criminal networks, resource scarcity, violent displacement of peoples, pandemics, piracy and extremism, as well as destabilizing trafficking in weapons, sensitive technologies, narcotics, money and persons—will not necessarily arise from the deliberate strategic choices of states but will often come from non-state or sub-state sources. Unfortunately, the global community has yet to fully grapple with the ongoing structural changes that define today’s dynamic, complex and transnationalized security landscape—changes that often outpace the ability of established institutions and mechanisms to cope with them.