Contents

Chapter:

Source:

SIPRI Yearbook 2011

1. • Preface xv
   • Acknowledgements xvi
   • Abstracts xvii
   • Abbreviations and conventions xx

2. Introduction

   • Introduction. International security, armaments and disarmament 3Bates Gill
     1. I. Assessing the past year 3
     2. II. SIPRI Yearbook 2011: overview, themes and key findings 5
     3. III. Implications and looking ahead 10
   • 1. Corruption and the arms trade: sins of commission 13Andrew Feinstein, Paul Holden and Barnaby Pace
     1. I. Introduction 13
     2. II. Understanding corruption in the arms trade 14
     3. III. The South African arms deal: undermining a nascent democracy 20
     4. IV. The impact of corruption in the arms trade 26
     5. V. Conclusions: the way forward 30

3. Part I. Security and conflicts, 2010

   • 2. Resources and armed conflict 39Neil Melvin and Ruben De Koning
     1. I. Introduction 39
     2. II. Current thinking on resource–conflict links 40
     3. III. Economic approaches to conflict 43
     4. IV. Environmental approaches to conflict 49
     5. V. The resource geopolitics approach 54
     6. VI. Conclusions: the challenges of cooperative resource governance 58
   • Appendix 2A. Patterns of major armed conflicts, 2001–10 61Lotta Themnér and Peter Wallensteen
     1. I. Global patterns 61
     2. II. Regional patterns 62
     3. III. Changes in the table of conflicts for 2010 65
     4. IV. Major armed conflicts in a wider context 68
     5. V. Table of major armed conflicts 69
     6. Figure 2A.1. Timeline of major armed conflicts, 2001–10 63
     7. Figure 2A.2. Regional distribution and total number of major armed conflicts, 2001–10 64
     8. Table 2A.1. Number of major armed conflicts, by region and type, 2001–10 62
     9. Table 2A.2. Number of locations of major armed conflicts, by region, 2001–10 62
     10. Table 2A.3. Major armed conflicts in 2010 73
   • Appendix 2B. The Global Peace Index 2011 77Camilla Schippa and Daniel Hyslop
     1. I. Introduction 77
     2. II. Highlights and changes 79
     3. III. Methodology and data sources 81
     4. IV. Investigating peace at the subnational level 83
     5. Table 2B.1. The Global Peace Index 2011 78
     6. Table 2B.2. Countries with the greatest change in Global Peace Index scores, 2010–11 80
     7. Table 2B.3. Measures of ongoing domestic and international conflict 81
     8. Table 2B.4. Measures of societal safety and security 82
     9. Table 2B.5. Measures of militarization 82
     10. Table 2B.6. The indicators for national peace indices 84
     11. Table 2B.7. The US Peace Index 2011 85
   • 3. Peace operations: the fragile consensus 87Thierry Tardy
     1. I. Introduction 87
     2. II. Background 88
     3. III. In search of a shared understanding 90
     4. IV. Emerging powers and the peacekeeping consensus 96
     5. V. Conclusions: towards a new consensus? 107
   • Appendix 3A. Multilateral peace operations, 2010 110Sigrún Andrésdóttir
     1. I. Introduction 110
     2. II. Global trends 110
     3. III. Regional developments 116
     4. IV. Table of multilateral peace operations 120
     5. Figure 3A.1. Number of multilateral peace operations, by type of conducting organization, 2001–10 111
     6. Figure 3A.2. Number of personnel deployed to multilateral peace operations, 2001–10 112
     7. Figure 3A.3. The top 10 contributors of troops to multilateral peace operations, including and excluding the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, 2010 113
     8. Figure 3A.4. The top 10 contributors of civilian police to multilateral peace operations, 2010 114
     9. Figure 3A.5. Brazilian personnel in multilateral peace operations, 2001–10 115
     10. Figure 3A.6. Chinese personnel in multilateral peace operations, 2001–10 115
     11. Figure 3A.7. Indian personnel in multilateral peace operations, 2001–10 116
     12. Figure 3A.8. South African personnel in multilateral peace operations, 2001–10 116
     13. Table 3A.1. Number of peace operations and personnel deployed, by region and type of organization, 2010 118
     14. Table 3A.2. Multilateral peace operations, 2010 123

4. Part II. Military spending and armaments, 2010

   • 4. Military expenditure 157Sam Perlo-Freeman, Julian Cooper, Olawale Ismail, Elisabeth Sköns and Carina Solmirano
     1. I. Introduction 157
     2. II. The United States 158
     3. III. China 159
     4. IV. Russia 163
     5. V. India 166
     6. VI. Brazil 170
     7. VII. Turkey 173
     8. VIII. South Africa 176
     9. IX. Conclusions 179
     10. Table 4.1. US outlays for the Department of Defense and total national defence, financial years 2001 and 2008–12 158
     11. Table 4.2. Russian military expenditure 2001, 2005, 2008–11 164
   • Appendix 4A. Military expenditure data, 2001–10 181Sam Perlo-Freeman, Olawale Ismail, Noel Kelly, Elisabeth Sköns and Carina Solmirano
     1. I. Introduction 181
     2. II. Regional trends and major spenders 181
     3. III. Estimating China’s military spending 185
     4. IV. Tables of military expenditure 188
     5. Box 4A.1. World trends in military expenditure, 2010 182
     6. Box 4A.2. Trends in military spending in Africa, 2010 184
     7. Box 4A.3. Trends in military spending in the Americas, 2010 184
     8. Box 4A.4. Trends in military spending in Asia and Oceania, 2010 185
     9. Box 4A.5. Trends in military spending in Europe, 2010 186
     10. Box 4A.6. Trends in military spending in the Middle East, 2010 187
     11. Table 4A.1. The 15 countries with the highest military expenditure in 2010 183
     12. Table 4A.2. Military expenditure by region, by international organization and by income group, 2001–10 194
     13. Table 4A.3. Military expenditure by country, in local currency, 2001–10 198
     14. Table 4A.4. Military expenditure by country, in constant US dollars for 2001–10 and current US dollars for 2010 205
     15. Table 4A.5. Military expenditure by country as percentage of gross domestic product, 2001–2009 212
   • Appendix 4B. The reporting of military expenditure data, 2001–10 223Noel Kelly
     1. I. Introduction 223
     2. II. The reporting systems 223
     3. III. Trends in reporting, 2001–10 225
     4. Table 4B.1. Number of countries reporting their military expenditure to the United Nations and SIPRI, 2001–10 226
     5. Table 4B.2. Reporting of military expenditure data to the United Nations and SIPRI, by region, 2010 228
   • 5. Arms production 231Susan T. Jackson
     1. I. Introduction 231
     2. II. Developments in the arms industry, 2009–10 231
     3. III. Motivations, barriers and capability in arms production 233
     4. IV. The Israeli arms industry 236
     5. V. The South Korean arms industry 240
     6. VI. The Turkish arms industry 244
     7. VII. Conclusions 247
   • Appendix 5A. The SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing companies, 2009 249Susan T. Jackson
     1. I. Introduction 249
     2. II. Trends in the SIPRI Top 100 249
     3. III. The SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing companies, 2009 254
     4. Table 5A.1. Trends in arms sales of companies in the SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing companies, 2002–2009 250
     5. Table 5A.2. Regional and national shares of arms sales for the SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing companies, 2009 compared to 2008 251
     6. Table 5A.3. Change in arms sales of Russian companies in the SIPRI Top 100, measured in dollars and roubles, 2008–2009 254
     7. Table 5A.4. The SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing companies in the world excluding China, 2009 257
   • Appendix 5B. Major arms industry acquisitions, 2010 263Vincent Boulanin
     1. I. Introduction 263
     2. II. Acquisitions by companies based in OECD countries 263
     3. III. Acquisitions by companies based in non-OECD countries 265
     4. Table 5B.1. Major acquisitions in the OECD arms industries, 2010 266
   • 6. International arms transfers 271Paul Holtom, Mark Bromley, Pieter D. Wezeman and Siemon T. Wezeman
     1. I. Introduction 271
     2. II. Major arms suppliers: the United States and Russia 273
     3. III. Arms transfers to India and Pakistan 278
     4. IV. Exports from the European Union to countries in conflict 285
     5. V. Conclusions 291
     6. Figure 6.1. The trend in international transfers of major conventional weapons, 2001–10 272
     7. Table 6.1. The five largest suppliers of major conventional weapons and their main recipients, 2006–10 273
   • Appendix 6A. The suppliers and recipients of major conventional weapons, 2006–10 292The Sipri Arms Transfers Programme
     1. I. Introduction 292
     2. II. Sources and methods for arms transfers data 293
     3. Table 6A.1. The recipients of major conventional weapons, 2006–10 298
     4. Table 6A.2. The suppliers of major conventional weapons, 2006–10 302
     5. Table 6A.3. The 10 largest recipients of major conventional weapons and their suppliers, 2006–10 304
     6. Table 6A.4. The 10 largest suppliers of major conventional weapons and their destinations, by region, 2006–10 305
   • Appendix 6B. The financial value of states’ arms exports, 2000–2009 306Mark Bromley
     1. Table 6B.1. The financial value of states’ arms exports according to national government and industry sources, 2000–2009 308
   • Appendix 6C. Transparency in arms transfers 310Mark Bromley and Paul Holtom
     1. I. Introduction 310
     2. II. The United Nations Register of Conventional Arms 310
     3. III. National and regional reports on arms exports 313
     4. Figure 6C.1. Number of reports submitted to the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms, 2000–2009 311
     5. Table 6C.1. Reports submitted to the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms, by region, 2005–2009 312
     6. Table 6C.2. The timeliness of annual reports on arms exports for 2009 314
     7. Table 6C.3. Submissions of information to the European Union annual report on arms exports, 2003–2009 315
     8. Table 6C.4. States participating in international, regional and national reporting mechanisms on arms transfers, 2008–10 316
   • 7. World nuclear forces 319Shannon N. Kile, Vitaly Fedchenko, Bharath Gopalaswamy and Hans M. Kristensen
     1. I. Introduction 319
     2. II. US nuclear forces 320
     3. III. Russian nuclear forces 328
     4. IV. British nuclear forces 335
     5. V. French nuclear forces 339
     6. VI. Chinese nuclear forces 340
     7. VII. Indian nuclear forces 343
     8. VIII. Pakistani nuclear forces 346
     9. IX. Israeli nuclear forces 349
     10. X. North Korea’s military nuclear capabilities 351
     11. XI. Conclusions 352
     12. Table 7.1. World nuclear forces, January 2011 320
     13. Table 7.2. US nuclear forces, January 2011 322
     14. Table 7.3. Russian nuclear forces, January 2011 330
     15. Table 7.4. British nuclear forces, January 2011 336
     16. Table 7.5. French nuclear forces, January 2011 338
     17. Table 7.6. Chinese nuclear forces, January 2011 342
     18. Table 7.7. Indian nuclear forces, January 2011 344
     19. Table 7.8. Pakistani nuclear forces, January 2011 348
     20. Table 7.9. Israeli nuclear forces, January 2011 350
   • Appendix 7A. Global stocks and production of fissile materials, 2010 354Alexander Glaser and Zia Mian
     1. Table 7A.1. Global stocks of highly enriched uranium (HEU), 2010 355
     2. Table 7A.2. Global stocks of separated plutonium, 2010 356
     3. Table 7A.3. Significant uranium enrichment facilities and capacity worldwide, as of December 2010 358
     4. Table 7A.4. Significant reprocessing facilities worldwide, as of December 2010 359

5. Part III. Non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament, 2010

   • 8. Nuclear arms control and non-proliferation 363Shannon N. Kile
     1. I. Introduction 363
     2. II. Russian–US strategic nuclear arms control 364
     3. III. International cooperation to enhance nuclear security 372
     4. IV. The 2010 Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference 375
     5. V. Iran and nuclear proliferation concerns 381
     6. VI. North Korea’s nuclear programme 384
     7. VII. Conclusions 386
     8. Table 8.1. Summary of Russian–US nuclear arms reduction treaties’ force limits 366
   • 9. Reducing security threats from chemical and biological materials 389John Hart and Peter Clevestig
     1. I. Introduction 389
     2. II. Biological weapon arms control and disarmament 389
     3. III. Chemical weapon arms control and disarmament 393
     4. IV. Allegations of CBW development, use and prior programmes 402
     5. V. CBW prevention, response and remediation 404
     6. VI. Conclusions 409
   • 10. Conventional arms control and military confidence building 411Zdzislaw Lachowski
     1. I. Introduction 411
     2. II. European arms control: the CFE regime 411
     3. III. Consolidating military confidence in the OSCE area 416
     4. IV. The Treaty on Open Skies 422
     5. V. The global dimension 424
     6. VI. Conclusions 428
   • 11. Strategic trade controls: countering the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction 431Sibylle Bauer, Aaron Dunne and Ivana Mićić
     1. I. Introduction 431
     2. II. Regimes and initiatives 432
     3. III. Capacity-building efforts 436
     4. IV. Coercive measures 440
     5. V. Conclusions 445
   • Appendix 11A. Multilateral arms embargoes, 2010 447Pieter D. Wezeman and Noel Kelly
     1. I. Introduction 447
     2. II. Developments in United Nations arms embargoes 447
     3. III. Developments in other multilateral arms embargoes 452
     4. Table 11A.1. Multilateral arms embargoes in force during 2010 454

6. Annexes

   • Annex A. Arms control and disarmament agreements 459Nenne Bodell
     1. I. Universal treaties 460
     2. II. Regional treaties 476
     3. III. Bilateral treaties 486
   • Annex B. International security cooperation bodies 491Nenne Bodell
   • Annex C. Chronology 2010 513Nenne Bodell
7. • About the authors 525
   • Errata 533
   • Index 534